Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 1 — Европа 2-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Bramewin 2:0series probability
74%26%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Meta4Proloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Brame
Earth Spirit
CTOMAHEH1 · 10 games
Oracleoften banned
SsaSpartan · 9 games
Beastmastersignature
SkyLark · 7 games
Ursaoften banned
Focus · 7 games
Grimstroke
SsaSpartan · 6 games
Puckoften banned
W1sh- · 6 games
Shadow Shaman
CTOMAHEH1 · 6 games
Clockwerk
CTOMAHEH1 · 5 games
Meta4Pro
Pangolieroften banned
ZipZaper · 2 games
Bounty Hunteroften banned
ZipZaper · 1 game
Bristlebackoften banned
ZipZaper · 1 game
Juggernautoften banned
Lowskill · 1 game
Lycanoften banned
Lowskill · 1 game
Marsoften banned
ZipZaper · 1 game
Phantom Assassinoften banned
Lowskill · 1 game
Rikioften banned
Lowskill · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
249 picks · 515 bans
Void Spirit
229 picks · 280 bans
Mars
207 picks · 378 bans
Earth Spirit
196 picks · 154 bans
Keeper of the Light
168 picks · 290 bans
Phoenix
165 picks · 190 bans
Nyx Assassin
164 picks · 518 bans
Wraith King
157 picks · 202 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)52% vs 40%
Hero pool strength51% Meta4Pro
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total74% Brame
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct
Brame 74%Meta4Pro 26%
The model gave 74% on Brame — the game was taken by Brame.
Model check result
Model favoriteBrame · 74%
Series resultBrame 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1