Snow Sweet Snow #2 · BO3
result vs prediction
B8 Esportsloss 0:2series probability
16%84%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Creepwavewin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
B8 Esports
Puckoften banned
Dendi · 7 games
Rubick
illusion · 6 games
Terrorbladeoften banned
RdO · 6 games
Enchantress
Duster · 5 games
Arc Wardenoften banned
RdO · 4 games
Shadow Shaman
[T]SA · 4 games
Void Spiritoften banned
Dendi · 4 games
Wraith Kingoften banned
RdO · 4 games
Creepwave
Void Spiritsignature
Malr1ne · 15 games
Nyx Assassinsignature
Alexxo · 14 games
Pucksignature
Malr1ne · 13 games
Monkey Kingsignature
Crystallis · 12 games
Marssignature
ATF · 11 games
Miranasignature
Alexxo · 10 games
Wraith Kingsignature
Crystallis · 10 games
Lichsignature
Fishman · 9 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
249 picks · 514 bans
Void Spirit
228 picks · 279 bans
Mars
205 picks · 378 bans
Earth Spirit
196 picks · 154 bans
Keeper of the Light
167 picks · 290 bans
Phoenix
165 picks · 188 bans
Nyx Assassin
162 picks · 518 bans
Wraith King
155 picks · 202 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)31% vs 74%
Hero pool strength64% Creepwave
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total84% Creepwave
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct11:27
B8 Esports 27%Creepwave 73%
The model gave 73% on Creepwave — the game was taken by Creepwave in 29:53.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
LifestealerBor@nija
Wraith KingCrystallis
MarsDendi
Outworld DestroyerMalr1ne
Keeper of the LightDuster
Void SpiritATF
Lion[T]SA
MiranaMiLAN
55% · 35 games
Nyx AssassinFishman
Game 2prediction correct22:36
B8 Esports 30%Creepwave 70%
The model gave 70% on Creepwave — the game was taken by Creepwave in 35:12.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Wraith KingBor@nija
Phantom LancerCrystallis
Dragon KnightDendi
MarsATF
Death ProphetDuster
EarthshakerMalr1ne
Nyx Assassin[T]SA
WeaverMiLAN
40% · 21 game
Crystal MaidenFishman
Model check result
Model favoriteCreepwave · 84%
Series resultCreepwave 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2