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FISSURE Universe: Episode 8. Play-In · BO3
result vs prediction
Zero Tenacitywin 2:1
series probability
81%19%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Power Rangersloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Zero Tenacity

Disruptor
Disruptorsignature
Se · 41 game
61%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Mirage · 40 games
55%
Warlock
Warlock
Se · 30 games
47%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
Se · 29 games
59%
Underlord
Underlordoften banned
Nefrit · 29 games
55%
Abaddon
Abaddonoften banned
Kami · 28 games
57%
Bristleback
Bristleback
Nefrit · 27 games
59%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Worick · 27 games
63%

Power Rangers

Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
Immersion · 6 games
17%
Clinkz
Clinkzoften banned
nesfeer · 4 games
0%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendoften banned
nesfeer · 4 games
75%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Alberkaaa · 3 games
33%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
Hduo · 3 games
33%
Jakiro
Jakirooften banned
Hduo · 3 games
0%
Kunkka
Kunkka
Alberkaaa · 3 games
0%
Tidehunter
Tidehunteroften banned
Alberkaaa · 3 games
33%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
539 picks · 852 bans
50%
Tusk
Tusk
517 picks · 370 bans
48%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
472 picks · 641 bans
50%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
458 picks · 588 bans
55%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
393 picks · 779 bans
53%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
349 picks · 579 bans
49%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
345 picks · 553 bans
59%
Mars
Mars
340 picks · 487 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)67% vs 40%
Hero pool strength59% Zero Tenacity
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total81% Zero Tenacity
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct44:28
Zero Tenacity 66%Power Rangers 34%
The model gave 66% on Zero Tenacity — the game was taken by Zero Tenacity in 48:19.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Windranger
WindrangerKami
47% · 181 game59% · 230 games
Slardarnicky`cool
Slardar
Shadow Fiend
Shadow FiendWorick
46% · 139 games57% · 48 games
Razornesfeer
Razor
Brewmaster
BrewmasterNefrit
49% · 79 games50% · 251 game
MarsAlberkaaa
Mars
Warlock
WarlockMoOz
47% · 385 games52% · 171 game
PhoenixHduo
Phoenix
Tiny
TinydEsire
50% · 362 games45% · 446 games
TuskImmersion
Tusk
Game 2prediction missed20:35
Zero Tenacity 68%Power Rangers 32%
The model gave 68% on Zero Tenacity — the game was taken by Power Rangers in 46:36.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Bristleback
BristlebackNefrit
57% · 362 games43% · 225 games
Templar Assassinnesfeer
Templar Assassin
Shadow Fiend
Shadow FiendKami
46% · 211 games46% · 468 games
Pucknicky`cool
Puck
Void Spirit
Void SpiritWorick
47% · 339 games53% · 222 games
SlardarAlberkaaa
Slardar
Chen
ChenMoOz
62% · 235 games48% · 444 games
JakiroHduo
Jakiro
Tiny
TinydEsire
48% · 504 games51% · 292 games
RingmasterImmersion
Ringmaster
Game 3prediction correct37:24
Zero Tenacity 68%Power Rangers 32%
The model gave 68% on Zero Tenacity — the game was taken by Zero Tenacity in 45:39.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Abaddon
AbaddonKami
54% · 239 games56% · 193 games
Templar Assassinnesfeer
Templar Assassin
Queen of Pain
Queen of PainWorick
51% · 214 games55% · 146 games
Timbersawnicky`cool
Timbersaw
Razor
RazorNefrit
46% · 35 games41% · 62 games
BrewmasterAlberkaaa
Brewmaster
Nyx Assassin
Nyx AssassindEsire
45% · 68 games50% · 381 game
TuskImmersion
Tusk
Warlock
WarlockMoOz
47% · 295 games53% · 69 games
LionHduo
Lion
Model check result
Model favoriteZero Tenacity · 81%
Series resultZero Tenacity 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3