Snow Sweet Snow #2 · BO3
result vs prediction
Spider Pigzsloss 0:2series probability
36%64%
probability at match start · final 0:2
PuckChampwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Spider Pigzs
Linasignature
No!ob · 12 games
Rubick
dnz · 11 games
Brewmaster
Mitch · 9 games
Death Prophetsignature
Mitch · 8 games
Grimstroke
LeBronDota · 8 games
Clockwerk
dnz · 7 games
Crystal Maiden
LeBronDota · 7 games
Void Spiritsignature
No!ob · 6 games
PuckChamp
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
247 picks · 510 bans
Void Spirit
225 picks · 277 bans
Mars
205 picks · 378 bans
Earth Spirit
193 picks · 154 bans
Keeper of the Light
166 picks · 285 bans
Phoenix
163 picks · 188 bans
Nyx Assassin
160 picks · 515 bans
Wraith King
153 picks · 199 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)57% vs 70%
Hero pool strength54% Spider Pigzs
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total64% PuckChamp
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct26:44
Spider Pigzs 36%PuckChamp 64%
The model gave 64% on PuckChamp — the game was taken by PuckChamp in 49:00.
Game 2prediction correct11:37
Spider Pigzs 36%PuckChamp 64%
The model gave 64% on PuckChamp — the game was taken by PuckChamp in 23:06.
Model check result
Model favoritePuckChamp · 64%
Series resultPuckChamp 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2