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Snow Sweet Snow #2 · BO3
result vs prediction
Hellbear Smasherswin 2:0
series probability
71%29%
probability at match start · final 2:0
NoUndyingloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Hellbear Smashers

Puck
Pucksignature
Stormstormer · 11 games
64%
Invoker
Invokersignature
Stormstormer · 10 games
80%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
Ace · 9 games
67%
Wraith King
Wraith Kingsignature
Ace · 9 games
67%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Ace · 8 games
88%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
Stormstormer · 7 games
71%
Oracle
Oracleoften banned
tOfu · 7 games
57%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maidensignature
tOfu · 6 games
67%

NoUndying

Batrider
Batrideroften banned
LastHero- · 8 games
50%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
velheor · 6 games
33%
Void Spirit
Void Spiritoften banned
Kodos · 6 games
50%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
BLACKARXANGEL · 5 games
100%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Kodos · 4 games
25%
Witch Doctor
Witch Doctor
BLACKARXANGEL · 4 games
25%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
BLACKARXANGEL · 3 games
0%
Invoker
Invokeroften banned
Kodos · 3 games
0%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
Puck
244 picks · 510 bans
56%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
224 picks · 275 bans
58%
Mars
Mars
205 picks · 377 bans
48%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
193 picks · 154 bans
50%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Light
166 picks · 283 bans
57%
Phoenix
Phoenix
161 picks · 187 bans
58%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassin
160 picks · 512 bans
57%
Wraith King
Wraith King
152 picks · 198 bans
60%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)68% vs 56%
Hero pool strength60% Hellbear Smashers
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total71% Hellbear Smashers
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Model check result
Model favoriteHellbear Smashers · 71%
Series resultHellbear Smashers 2:0
Series predictioncorrect