Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 1 — Северная Америка 1-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Evil Geniuseswin 2:0series probability
77%23%
probability at match start · final 2:0
A-Teamloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Evil Geniuses
Witch Doctor
KJ · 5 games
Beastmasteroften banned
Kingrd · 4 games
Wraith Kingoften banned
Costabile · 4 games
Invokeroften banned
4dr · 3 games
Dark Willow
Thiolicor · 2 games
Earth Spirit
Thiolicor · 2 games
Marsoften banned
4dr · 2 games
Oracleoften banned
KJ · 2 games
A-Team
Troll Warlordoften banned
Rises · 3 games
Legion Commanderoften banned
TheBloodySky · 2 games
Night Stalkeroften banned
TheBloodySky · 2 games
Slarkoften banned
Rises · 2 games
Batrideroften banned
TheBloodySky · 1 game
Death Prophetoften banned
TheBloodySky · 1 game
Faceless Voidoften banned
Rises · 1 game
Juggernautoften banned
Rises · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
242 picks · 505 bans
Void Spirit
221 picks · 273 bans
Mars
204 picks · 376 bans
Earth Spirit
192 picks · 154 bans
Keeper of the Light
165 picks · 281 bans
Phoenix
161 picks · 187 bans
Nyx Assassin
158 picks · 510 bans
Wraith King
151 picks · 195 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)75% vs 42%
Hero pool strength61% Evil Geniuses
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total77% Evil Geniuses
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed5:14
Evil Geniuses 77%A-Team 23%
The model gave 77% on Evil Geniuses — the game was taken by A-Team in 18:52.
Game 2prediction missed7:24
Evil Geniuses 77%A-Team 23%
The model gave 77% on Evil Geniuses — the game was taken by A-Team in 22:10.
Model check result
Model favoriteEvil Geniuses · 77%
Series resultEvil Geniuses 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 2