Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 1 — СНГ 1-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
AS Monaco Gambitloss 1:2series probability
30%70%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Natus Vincerewin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
AS Monaco Gambit
Earth Spirit
xsvampire · 5 games
Marsoften banned
Blizzy · 5 games
Crystal Maiden
PuberrrR · 4 games
Phantom Lanceroften banned
xannii · 4 games
Tidehunteroften banned
Blizzy · 4 games
Void Spiritoften banned
Lorenof · 4 games
Mirana
xsvampire · 3 games
Puckoften banned
Lorenof · 3 games
Natus Vincere
Enigmaoften banned
GeneRaL · 4 games
Beastmasteroften banned
GeneRaL · 3 games
Chenoften banned
RodjER · 3 games
Disruptor
ALWAYSWANNAFLY · 3 games
Doomoften banned
Iceberg · 2 games
Earth Spirit
RodjER · 2 games
Lifestealeroften banned
V-Tune · 2 games
Morphlingoften banned
V-Tune · 2 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
239 picks · 503 bans
Void Spirit
219 picks · 272 bans
Mars
203 picks · 375 bans
Earth Spirit
191 picks · 154 bans
Keeper of the Light
165 picks · 275 bans
Phoenix
160 picks · 185 bans
Nyx Assassin
156 picks · 510 bans
Wraith King
149 picks · 191 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)40% vs 75%
Hero pool strength61% Natus Vincere
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total70% Natus Vincere
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct7:31
AS Monaco Gambit 30%Natus Vincere 70%
The model gave 70% on Natus Vincere — the game was taken by Natus Vincere in 31:16.
Game 2prediction correct14:17
AS Monaco Gambit 30%Natus Vincere 70%
The model gave 70% on Natus Vincere — the game was taken by Natus Vincere in 27:04.
Game 3prediction correct26:27
AS Monaco Gambit 30%Natus Vincere 70%
The model gave 70% on Natus Vincere — the game was taken by Natus Vincere in 37:58.
Model check result
Model favoriteNatus Vincere · 70%
Series resultNatus Vincere 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game3 of 3