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Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 1 — СНГ 2-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
PuckChampwin 2:1
series probability
73%27%
probability at match start · final 2:1
VP.Prodigyloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

PuckChamp

No games played over 6 months.

VP.Prodigy

Undying
Undyingoften banned
dSa · 11 games
45%
Troll Warlord
Troll Warlordsignature
Noticed · 10 games
80%
Rubick
Rubick
forcemajor · 9 games
44%
Void Spirit
Void Spiritoften banned
Larl · 9 games
56%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
dSa · 7 games
43%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
forcemajor · 5 games
80%
Oracle
Oracleoften banned
dSa · 5 games
100%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Larl · 5 games
40%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
Puck
239 picks · 500 bans
56%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
218 picks · 270 bans
58%
Mars
Mars
203 picks · 372 bans
48%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
190 picks · 154 bans
50%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Light
163 picks · 274 bans
57%
Phoenix
Phoenix
159 picks · 185 bans
58%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassin
156 picks · 507 bans
57%
Wraith King
Wraith King
148 picks · 190 bans
59%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)68% vs 38%
Hero pool strength55% VP.Prodigy
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total73% PuckChamp
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed15:31
PuckChamp 73%VP.Prodigy 27%
The model gave 73% on PuckChamp — the game was taken by VP.Prodigy in 35:03.
Game 2prediction missed23:26
PuckChamp 73%VP.Prodigy 27%
The model gave 73% on PuckChamp — the game was taken by VP.Prodigy in 36:25.
Game 3prediction missed37:25
PuckChamp 73%VP.Prodigy 27%
The model gave 73% on PuckChamp — the game was taken by VP.Prodigy in 43:29.
Model check result
Model favoritePuckChamp · 73%
Series resultPuckChamp 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 3