DreamLeague Season 30. Открытые отборочные · BO3
result vs predictionMWMena Warriosloss 0:2
series probability
5%95%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Dawn Bullswin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Mena Warrios
No games played over 6 months.
Dawn Bulls
Hoodwink
Se · 3 games
Centaur Warrunner
Xibbe · 2 games
Gyrocopter
yamich · 2 games
Puckoften banned
Sancity · 2 games
Spectreoften banned
Shad · 2 games
Techies
yamich · 2 games
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Xibbe · 1 game
Earth Spiritoften banned
Sancity · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
507 picks · 315 bans
Dark Willow
431 picks · 226 bans
Mirana
392 picks · 176 bans
Winter Wyvern
341 picks · 311 bans
Ember Spirit
322 picks · 491 bans
Centaur Warrunner
296 picks · 284 bans
Windranger
280 picks · 130 bans
Earth Spirit
275 picks · 502 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)40% vs 70%
Hero pool strength59% Dawn Bulls
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total95% Dawn Bulls
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct9:37
Mena Warrios 18%Dawn Bulls 82%
The model gave 82% on Dawn Bulls — the game was taken by Dawn Bulls in 33:29.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
PuckNo!ob
SvenShad
HoodwinkislA
DawnbreakerXibbe
DazzleNagato
Earth SpiritSancity
54% · 172 games
MiranaSe
57% · 175 games
Keeper of the Lightyamich
Game 2prediction correct16:46
Mena Warrios 17%Dawn Bulls 83%
The model gave 83% on Dawn Bulls — the game was taken by Dawn Bulls in 35:21.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
LinaNo!ob
Anti-MageShad
Dark WillowislA
Earth SpiritSancity
DisruptorNagato
DawnbreakerXibbe
54% · 81 game
Gyrocopteryamich
49% · 145 games
MiranaSe
Model check result
Model favoriteDawn Bulls · 95%
Series resultDawn Bulls 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2