Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 1 — Северная Америка 2-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Feltloss 0:2series probability
41%59%
probability at match start · final 0:2
simply TOOBASEDwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Felt
Axe
Zore · 2 games
Timbersawoften banned
Zore · 2 games
Anti-Mageoften banned
Kom4rt · 1 game
Batrideroften banned
solji · 1 game
Drow Rangeroften banned
Kom4rt · 1 game
Ember Spiritoften banned
solji · 1 game
Outworld Destroyeroften banned
solji · 1 game
Razoroften banned
solji · 1 game
simply TOOBASED
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
234 picks · 497 bans
Void Spirit
216 picks · 268 bans
Mars
203 picks · 368 bans
Earth Spirit
185 picks · 154 bans
Keeper of the Light
163 picks · 266 bans
Phoenix
159 picks · 185 bans
Nyx Assassin
155 picks · 500 bans
Wraith King
146 picks · 188 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)71% vs 78%
Hero pool strength50% Felt
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total59% simply TOOBASED
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct11:31
Felt 41%simply TOOBASED 59%
The model gave 59% on simply TOOBASED — the game was taken by simply TOOBASED in 30:44.
Game 2prediction correct11:34
Felt 41%simply TOOBASED 59%
The model gave 59% on simply TOOBASED — the game was taken by simply TOOBASED in 32:48.
Model check result
Model favoritesimply TOOBASED · 59%
Series resultsimply TOOBASED 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2