Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 1 — Европа 1-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Secretwin 2:1series probability
54%46%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Allianceloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Secret
Pangolieroften banned
zai · 3 games
Puckoften banned
Puppey · 3 games
Rubick
YapzOr · 3 games
Void Spiritoften banned
Nisha · 3 games
Dark Willow
YapzOr · 2 games
Earthshaker
YapzOr · 2 games
Kunkkaoften banned
Nisha · 2 games
Nature's Prophetoften banned
zai · 2 games
Alliance
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
233 picks · 495 bans
Void Spirit
215 picks · 268 bans
Mars
203 picks · 366 bans
Earth Spirit
184 picks · 154 bans
Keeper of the Light
162 picks · 265 bans
Phoenix
159 picks · 185 bans
Nyx Assassin
155 picks · 498 bans
Wraith King
146 picks · 187 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)75% vs 70%
Hero pool strength60% Team Secret
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total54% Team Secret
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct17:2
Team Secret 54%Alliance 46%
The model gave 54% on Team Secret — the game was taken by Team Secret in 22:15.
Game 2prediction missed13:25
Team Secret 54%Alliance 46%
The model gave 54% on Team Secret — the game was taken by Alliance in 35:58.
Game 3prediction correct27:6
Team Secret 54%Alliance 46%
The model gave 54% on Team Secret — the game was taken by Team Secret in 29:40.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Secret · 54%
Series resultTeam Secret 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3