Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 1 — ЮВА 1-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Execrationloss 0:2series probability
45%55%
probability at match start · final 0:2
T1win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Execration
Marsoften banned
Rupido · 5 games
Oracleoften banned
RR · 4 games
Void Spiritoften banned
Ken · 4 games
Batrideroften banned
Ken · 3 games
Medusaoften banned
Yowe · 3 games
Wraith Kingoften banned
Yowe · 3 games
Bristlebackoften banned
Yowe · 2 games
Dark Seeroften banned
Rupido · 2 games
T1
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
229 picks · 491 bans
Void Spirit
212 picks · 265 bans
Mars
203 picks · 363 bans
Earth Spirit
184 picks · 150 bans
Keeper of the Light
161 picks · 262 bans
Phoenix
157 picks · 181 bans
Nyx Assassin
152 picks · 495 bans
Rubick
142 picks · 86 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)45% vs 50%
Hero pool strength53% Execration
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total55% T1
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct17:27
Execration 45%T1 55%
The model gave 55% on T1 — the game was taken by T1 in 44:37.
Model check result
Model favoriteT1 · 55%
Series resultT1 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1