Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 1 — Южная Америка 1-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
EgoBoyswin 2:0series probability
38%62%
probability at match start · final 2:0
SG e-sportsloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
EgoBoys
No games played over 6 months.
SG e-sports
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
228 picks · 488 bans
Void Spirit
211 picks · 265 bans
Mars
201 picks · 361 bans
Earth Spirit
183 picks · 149 bans
Keeper of the Light
160 picks · 262 bans
Phoenix
157 picks · 180 bans
Nyx Assassin
151 picks · 492 bans
Rubick
141 picks · 86 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)47% vs 63%
Hero pool strength50% EgoBoys
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total62% SG e-sports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct41:25
EgoBoys 38%SG e-sports 62%
The model gave 62% on SG e-sports — the game was taken by SG e-sports in 49:53.
Game 2prediction correct33:23
EgoBoys 38%SG e-sports 62%
The model gave 62% on SG e-sports — the game was taken by SG e-sports in 34:41.
Model check result
Model favoriteSG e-sports · 62%
Series resultEgoBoys 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game2 of 2