Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 1 — Южная Америка 1-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Latam Defendersloss 0:2series probability
35%65%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Team Unknownwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Latam Defenders
Earth Spirit
Moonlight · 7 games
Crystal Maiden
Aretes · 6 games
Mirana
Moonlight · 5 games
Timbersawoften banned
Valquiria · 5 games
Undyingoften banned
Aretes · 5 games
Witch Doctor
Aretes · 5 games
Weaveroften banned
Cucahook · 4 games
Wraith Kingoften banned
Cucahook · 4 games
Team Unknown
Earth Spirit
Wij · 3 games
Earthshaker
Wij · 3 games
Enchantress
Yadomi · 3 games
Marsoften banned
drakeel · 3 games
Puckoften banned
Robo-Z · 3 games
Grimstroke
Yadomi · 2 games
Monkey Kingoften banned
Berna · 2 games
Nyx Assassinoften banned
Wij · 2 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
228 picks · 486 bans
Void Spirit
211 picks · 265 bans
Mars
200 picks · 361 bans
Earth Spirit
182 picks · 149 bans
Keeper of the Light
160 picks · 260 bans
Phoenix
155 picks · 180 bans
Nyx Assassin
149 picks · 492 bans
Rubick
140 picks · 86 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)39% vs 67%
Hero pool strength57% Team Unknown
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total65% Team Unknown
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct17:44
Latam Defenders 40%Team Unknown 60%
The model gave 60% on Team Unknown — the game was taken by Team Unknown in 30:19.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom LancerCucahook
JuggernautBerna
MarsValquiria
BatriderRobo-Z
RubickMoonlight
Sand Kingdrakeel
Witch DoctorAretes
PhoenixWij
56% · 59 games
Nyx AssassinYadomi
Game 2prediction correct5:33
Latam Defenders 41%Team Unknown 59%
The model gave 59% on Team Unknown — the game was taken by Team Unknown in 22:57.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Troll WarlordCucahook
JuggernautBerna
TimbersawValquiria
Monkey KingRobo-Z
PhoenixMoonlight
Death Prophetdrakeel
Nyx AssassinAretes
Earth SpiritWij
39% · 37 games
GrimstrokeYadomi
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Unknown · 65%
Series resultTeam Unknown 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2