Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 1 — Южная Америка 2-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Infinity Esportswin 2:0series probability
58%42%
probability at match start · final 2:0
CCrewmatesloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Infinity Esports
No games played over 6 months.
Crewmates
Abaddon
DFlash · 2 games
Batrideroften banned
4nalog · 2 games
Iooften banned
FCR · 2 games
Leshracoften banned
4nalog · 2 games
Phantom Assassinoften banned
FCR · 2 games
Queen of Painoften banned
4nalog · 2 games
Undyingoften banned
DFlash · 2 games
Void Spiritoften banned
4nalog · 2 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
225 picks · 484 bans
Void Spirit
209 picks · 261 bans
Mars
198 picks · 359 bans
Earth Spirit
180 picks · 147 bans
Keeper of the Light
159 picks · 253 bans
Phoenix
154 picks · 179 bans
Nyx Assassin
146 picks · 487 bans
Rubick
139 picks · 85 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)47% vs 33%
Hero pool strength57% Infinity Esports
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total58% Infinity Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed30:7
Infinity Esports 58%Crewmates 42%
The model gave 58% on Infinity Esports — the game was taken by Crewmates in 34:55.
Game 2prediction missed37:19
Infinity Esports 58%Crewmates 42%
The model gave 58% on Infinity Esports — the game was taken by Crewmates in 51:13.
Model check result
Model favoriteInfinity Esports · 58%
Series resultInfinity Esports 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 2