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Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 1 — СНГ 2-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Imperial Pro Gamingwin 2:0
series probability
58%42%
probability at match start · final 2:0
XactJlepbIloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Imperial Pro Gaming

Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
Muka · 12 games
50%
Puck
Pucksignature
Askold · 10 games
70%
Chen
Chensignature
antoha · 8 games
63%
Elder Titan
Elder Titansignature
antoha · 8 games
75%
Leshrac
Leshracsignature
Askold · 8 games
75%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Muka · 7 games
71%
Io
Iooften banned
antoha · 6 games
33%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
SuperNova · 6 games
50%

XactJlepbI

Mirana
Miranasignature
KingR · 10 games
80%
Rubick
Rubick
KingR · 9 games
44%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
MagicaL · 7 games
29%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Funn1k · 7 games
57%
Timbersaw
Timbersawoften banned
Funn1k · 7 games
43%
Elder Titan
Elder Titansignature
nofear · 6 games
67%
Puck
Puckoften banned
MagicaL · 6 games
33%
Troll Warlord
Troll Warlordsignature
lightless · 6 games
67%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
Puck
224 picks · 480 bans
57%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
205 picks · 261 bans
56%
Mars
Mars
198 picks · 358 bans
48%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
179 picks · 146 bans
50%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Light
158 picks · 250 bans
56%
Phoenix
Phoenix
153 picks · 179 bans
57%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassin
146 picks · 482 bans
57%
Rubick
Rubick
137 picks · 84 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 52%
Hero pool strength54% Imperial Pro Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total58% Imperial Pro Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct43:32
Imperial Pro Gaming 57%XactJlepbI 43%
The model gave 57% on Imperial Pro Gaming — the game was taken by Imperial Pro Gaming in 44:25.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dark Seer
Dark SeerSuperNova
47% · 23 games58% · 22 games
Wraith KingWatson
Wraith King
Void Spirit
Void SpiritAskold
50% · 57 games50% · 17 games
EnigmaFunn1k
Enigma
Clockwerk
ClockwerkMuka
52% · 29 games41% · 27 games
Death ProphetMagicaL
Death Prophet
49% · 35 games
EarthshakerKingR
Earthshaker
63% · 8 games
Disruptornofear
Disruptor
Game 2prediction correct36:22
Imperial Pro Gaming 54%XactJlepbI 46%
The model gave 54% on Imperial Pro Gaming — the game was taken by Imperial Pro Gaming in 38:26.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Void Spirit
Void SpiritAskold
47% · 68 games57% · 3 games
Arc WardenWatson
Arc Warden
Phoenix
PhoenixSuperNova
62% · 55 games53% · 31 game
TidehunterFunn1k
Tidehunter
Undying
UndyingMuka
46% · 21 game54% · 37 games
Ember SpiritMagicaL
Ember Spirit
40% · 41 game
RubickKingR
Rubick
39% · 32 games
Grimstrokenofear
Grimstroke
Model check result
Model favoriteImperial Pro Gaming · 58%
Series resultImperial Pro Gaming 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2