Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 1 — Северная Америка 1-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
bumble bEE'sloss 0:2series probability
35%65%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Team Undyingwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
bumble bEE's
Batrideroften banned
dnm · 2 games
Juggernautoften banned
Fear · 2 games
Lion
Sneyking · 2 games
Monkey Kingoften banned
dnm · 2 games
Nyx Assassinoften banned
Sneyking · 2 games
Tidehunteroften banned
Moo · 2 games
Witch Doctor
ppd · 2 games
Alchemistoften banned
Fear · 1 game
Team Undying
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
224 picks · 478 bans
Void Spirit
203 picks · 261 bans
Mars
198 picks · 358 bans
Earth Spirit
179 picks · 145 bans
Keeper of the Light
158 picks · 248 bans
Phoenix
152 picks · 179 bans
Nyx Assassin
146 picks · 480 bans
Rubick
137 picks · 84 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)57% vs 70%
Hero pool strength57% bumble bEE's
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total65% Team Undying
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct12:34
bumble bEE's 35%Team Undying 65%
The model gave 65% on Team Undying — the game was taken by Team Undying in 26:36.
Game 2prediction correct10:27
bumble bEE's 35%Team Undying 65%
The model gave 65% on Team Undying — the game was taken by Team Undying in 36:34.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Undying · 65%
Series resultTeam Undying 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2