Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 1 — Северная Америка 1-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Eternityloss 0:2series probability
63%37%
probability at match start · final 0:2
A-Teamwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Eternity
Puckoften banned
Ryoya · 3 games
Storm Spiritoften banned
Ryoya · 3 games
Witch Doctor
Jubei · 3 games
Ancient Apparitionoften banned
Jubei · 2 games
Earthshaker
FrancisLee · 2 games
Outworld Destroyeroften banned
Ryoya · 2 games
Phoenixoften banned
FrancisLee · 2 games
Ursaoften banned
YamSun · 2 games
A-Team
Night Stalkeroften banned
TheBloodySky · 2 games
Slarkoften banned
Rises · 2 games
Troll Warlordoften banned
Rises · 2 games
Death Prophetoften banned
TheBloodySky · 1 game
Faceless Voidoften banned
Rises · 1 game
Juggernautoften banned
Rises · 1 game
Legion Commanderoften banned
TheBloodySky · 1 game
Nature's Prophetoften banned
TheBloodySky · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
223 picks · 475 bans
Void Spirit
201 picks · 259 bans
Mars
198 picks · 354 bans
Earth Spirit
178 picks · 144 bans
Keeper of the Light
154 picks · 248 bans
Phoenix
151 picks · 179 bans
Nyx Assassin
146 picks · 477 bans
Rubick
135 picks · 82 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 36%
Hero pool strength53% Eternity
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total63% Eternity
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed39:48
Eternity 61%A-Team 39%
The model gave 61% on Eternity — the game was taken by A-Team in 1:09:30.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Wraith KingYamSun
WeaverRises
BatriderRyoya
Legion CommanderTheBloodySky
PhoenixFrancisLee
Keeper of the LightJubei
Game 2prediction missed32:38
Eternity 56%A-Team 44%
The model gave 56% on Eternity — the game was taken by A-Team in 52:31.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
WeaverYamSun
Troll WarlordRises
SlarkRyoya
BatriderTheBloodySky
EarthshakerFrancisLee
Witch DoctorJubei
Model check result
Model favoriteEternity · 63%
Series resultA-Team 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2