?
arrow_backBack to match
Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 1 — Южная Америка 2-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Hokoriwin 2:1
series probability
59%41%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Gorillaz-Prideloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Hokori

No games played over 6 months.

Gorillaz-Pride

Grimstroke
Grimstroke
Cara · 4 games
50%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
d1smar · 3 games
33%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Benjaz · 3 games
67%
Puck
Puckoften banned
TaO · 3 games
67%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
TaO · 2 games
50%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
d1smar · 2 games
50%
Rubick
Rubick
d1smar · 2 games
50%
Witch Doctor
Witch Doctor
Cara · 2 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
Puck
223 picks · 475 bans
57%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
201 picks · 259 bans
56%
Mars
Mars
198 picks · 354 bans
48%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
178 picks · 144 bans
50%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Light
154 picks · 248 bans
56%
Phoenix
Phoenix
151 picks · 179 bans
57%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassin
146 picks · 477 bans
57%
Rubick
Rubick
135 picks · 82 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)53% vs 63%
Hero pool strength51% Gorillaz-Pride
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total59% Hokori
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed26:43
Hokori 59%Gorillaz-Pride 41%
The model gave 59% on Hokori — the game was taken by Gorillaz-Pride in 1:01:19.
Game 2prediction missed11:33
Hokori 59%Gorillaz-Pride 41%
The model gave 59% on Hokori — the game was taken by Gorillaz-Pride in 30:25.
Game 3prediction missed25:10
Hokori 59%Gorillaz-Pride 41%
The model gave 59% on Hokori — the game was taken by Gorillaz-Pride in 30:17.
Model check result
Model favoriteHokori · 59%
Series resultHokori 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 3