Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 1 — Южная Америка 2-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Mad Kingsloss 0:2series probability
46%54%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Inversewin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Mad Kings
Crystal Maiden
Prada · 5 games
Monkey Kingoften banned
NaoG · 4 games
Phoenixoften banned
Tano · 4 games
Marsoften banned
Sacred · 3 games
Snapfire
Prada · 3 games
Wraith Kingoften banned
drakesh1t · 3 games
Beastmasteroften banned
Sacred · 2 games
Drow Rangeroften banned
drakesh1t · 2 games
Inverse
Grimstroke
Slaw · 2 games
Gyrocopter
DM · 2 games
Wraith Kingoften banned
DM · 2 games
Juggernautoften banned
DM · 1 game
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
Slaw · 1 game
Leshracoften banned
Slaw · 1 game
Nyx Assassinoften banned
Slaw · 1 game
Ogre Magi
Slaw · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
223 picks · 473 bans
Void Spirit
199 picks · 259 bans
Mars
198 picks · 352 bans
Earth Spirit
178 picks · 144 bans
Keeper of the Light
154 picks · 246 bans
Phoenix
151 picks · 179 bans
Nyx Assassin
145 picks · 474 bans
Rubick
134 picks · 82 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)29% vs 38%
Hero pool strength52% Mad Kings
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total54% Inverse
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct17:32
Mad Kings 50%Inverse 50%
The model gave 50% on Inverse — the game was taken by Inverse in 30:09.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Monkey Kingdrakesh1t
GrimstrokeSlaw
Void SpiritÑengoflow KELOKE
Game 2prediction missed0:0
Mad Kings 50%Inverse 50%
The model gave 50% on Mad Kings — the game was taken by Inverse in 55:22.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar AssassinÑengoflow KELOKE
Ancient ApparitionSlaw
Sniperdrakesh1t
Model check result
Model favoriteInverse · 54%
Series resultInverse 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 2