Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 1 — ЮВА 1-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Vice Esportsloss 0:2series probability
17%83%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Neon Esportswin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Vice Esports
Morphlingoften banned
Palos · 3 games
Void Spiritoften banned
Bob · 3 games
Bloodseeker
Enryu · 2 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Bob · 2 games
Iooften banned
Palos · 2 games
Juggernautoften banned
Palos · 2 games
Kunkkaoften banned
Bob · 2 games
Marsoften banned
Enryu · 2 games
Neon Esports
Troll Warlordsignature
Natsumi · 7 games
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
Skem · 5 games
Mirana
Skem · 5 games
Pangolieroften banned
PlayHard · 4 games
Puckoften banned
Yopaj · 4 games
Sand Kingoften banned
PlayHard · 4 games
Elder Titan
Jaunuel · 3 games
Grimstroke
Skem · 3 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
219 picks · 468 bans
Void Spirit
195 picks · 256 bans
Mars
192 picks · 351 bans
Earth Spirit
177 picks · 142 bans
Phoenix
150 picks · 177 bans
Keeper of the Light
149 picks · 245 bans
Nyx Assassin
144 picks · 469 bans
Rubick
133 picks · 81 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)45% vs 86%
Hero pool strength62% Neon Esports
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total83% Neon Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct18:45
Vice Esports 31%Neon Esports 69%
The model gave 69% on Neon Esports — the game was taken by Neon Esports in 28:59.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom LancerPalos
MorphlingNatsumi
Dragon KnightBob
PuckYopaj
BrewmasterEnryu
Legion CommanderPlayHard
41% · 7 games
TuskSkem
little data
Spirit BreakerJaunuel
Game 2prediction correct18:34
Vice Esports 27%Neon Esports 73%
The model gave 73% on Neon Esports — the game was taken by Neon Esports in 32:59.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Anti-MagePalos
MedusaNatsumi
MarsBob
GyrocopterYopaj
Legion CommanderEnryu
PangolierPlayHard
47% · 30 games
Keeper of the LightSkem
63% · 21 game
Nyx AssassinJaunuel
Model check result
Model favoriteNeon Esports · 83%
Series resultNeon Esports 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2