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Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 1 — СНГ 2-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Winstrike Teamwin 2:0
series probability
58%42%
probability at match start · final 2:0
HellRaisersloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Winstrike Team

Puck
Pucksignature
re1bl · 6 games
67%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
yamich · 5 games
80%
Wraith King
Wraith Kingoften banned
dyrachyo · 5 games
60%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
re1bl · 3 games
33%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
yamich · 3 games
67%
Disruptor
Disruptor
Panto · 3 games
33%
Juggernaut
Juggernautoften banned
dyrachyo · 3 games
100%
Mars
Marsoften banned
chshrct · 3 games
67%

HellRaisers

No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
Puck
219 picks · 468 bans
57%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
195 picks · 256 bans
56%
Mars
Mars
192 picks · 351 bans
48%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
177 picks · 142 bans
50%
Phoenix
Phoenix
150 picks · 177 bans
57%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Light
149 picks · 245 bans
56%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassin
144 picks · 469 bans
57%
Rubick
Rubick
133 picks · 81 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)64% vs 50%
Hero pool strength56% Winstrike Team
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total58% Winstrike Team
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct31:19
Winstrike Team 58%HellRaisers 42%
The model gave 58% on Winstrike Team — the game was taken by Winstrike Team in 45:26.
Game 2prediction correct28:8
Winstrike Team 58%HellRaisers 42%
The model gave 58% on Winstrike Team — the game was taken by Winstrike Team in 25:24.
Model check result
Model favoriteWinstrike Team · 58%
Series resultWinstrike Team 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2