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EPL Masters III · BO3
result vs prediction
Nemiga Gamingwin 2:1
series probability
10%90%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Dawn Bullsloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Nemiga Gaming

Hoodwink
Hoodwink
ariel · 28 games
46%
Techies
Techiesoften banned
ariel · 25 games
44%
Pangolier
Pangolier
Covisnine · 24 games
29%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
young G · 19 games
32%
Rubick
Rubick
ariel · 17 games
47%
Puck
Puckoften banned
young G · 15 games
53%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
Covisnine · 13 games
46%
Jakiro
Jakiro
VaniLLl · 13 games
31%

Dawn Bulls

Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakersignature
Xibbe · 6 games
100%
Mirana
Miranasignature
Se · 6 games
100%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spiritoften banned
Sancity · 5 games
80%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
yamich · 5 games
100%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Se · 4 games
75%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
Xibbe · 3 games
67%
Techies
Techiesoften banned
yamich · 3 games
100%
Anti-Mage
Anti-Mage
Shad · 2 games
100%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
521 picks · 340 bans
49%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
452 picks · 245 bans
51%
Mirana
Mirana
403 picks · 183 bans
53%
Winter Wyvern
Winter Wyvern
356 picks · 327 bans
57%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
335 picks · 514 bans
56%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
298 picks · 292 bans
53%
Windranger
Windranger
297 picks · 135 bans
51%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
294 picks · 518 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)30% vs 77%
Hero pool strength68% Dawn Bulls
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total90% Dawn Bulls
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed41:21
Nemiga Gaming 23%Dawn Bulls 77%
The model gave 77% on Dawn Bulls — the game was taken by Nemiga Gaming in 59:35.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Puck
Puckyoung G
49% · 201 game50% · 4 games
Chaos KnightShad
Chaos Knight
Windranger
Windrangerbyun
49% · 184 games43% · 345 games
Dragon KnightSancity
Dragon Knight
Tidehunter
Tidehuntertakizawa
55% · 139 games43% · 168 games
DawnbreakerXibbe
Dawnbreaker
Hoodwink
Hoodwinkariel
54% · 403 games54% · 324 games
MiranaSe
Mirana
Winter Wyvern
Winter WyvernVaniLLl
63% · 122 games45% · 208 games
Gyrocopteryamich
Gyrocopter
Game 2prediction correct6:31
Nemiga Gaming 22%Dawn Bulls 78%
The model gave 78% on Dawn Bulls — the game was taken by Dawn Bulls in 27:13.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Brewmaster
Brewmastertakizawa
55% · 88 games50% · 4 games
Chaos KnightShad
Chaos Knight
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirityoung G
49% · 309 games49% · 112 games
DawnbreakerXibbe
Dawnbreaker
Kez
Kezbyun
52% · 182 games54% · 483 games
Ember SpiritSancity
Ember Spirit
Dark Willow
Dark Willowariel
43% · 272 games49% · 148 games
Gyrocopteryamich
Gyrocopter
Lich
LichVaniLLl
50% · 82 games48% · 186 games
MiranaSe
Mirana
Game 3prediction missed32:13
Nemiga Gaming 22%Dawn Bulls 78%
The model gave 78% on Dawn Bulls — the game was taken by Nemiga Gaming in 44:20.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnertakizawa
56% · 253 games53% · 123 games
SvenShad
Sven
Kez
Kezbyun
53% · 137 games42% · 132 games
DawnbreakerXibbe
Dawnbreaker
Outworld Destroyer
Outworld Destroyeryoung G
48% · 24 games45% · 148 games
LinaSancity
Lina
Mirana
MiranaVaniLLl
46% · 129 games50% · 330 games
RingmasterSe
Ringmaster
Hoodwink
Hoodwinkariel
54% · 382 games48% · 192 games
Gyrocopteryamich
Gyrocopter
Model check result
Model favoriteDawn Bulls · 90%
Series resultNemiga Gaming 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3