EPL Masters III · BO3
result vs prediction
Dawn Bullswin 2:0series probability
88%12%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Team Spirit Academyloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Dawn Bulls
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Xibbe · 5 games
Earth Spiritoften banned
Sancity · 5 games
Gyrocopter
yamich · 5 games
Mirana
Se · 5 games
Hoodwink
Se · 4 games
Centaur Warrunner
Xibbe · 3 games
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
yamich · 2 games
Puckoften banned
Sancity · 2 games
Team Spirit Academy
Grimstroke
Aidar · 25 games
Dark Willow
Aidar · 17 games
Earth Spiritoften banned
86 · 17 games
Batridersignature
86 · 13 games
Kunkka
86 · 12 games
Largosignature
kae · 12 games
Baneoften banned
kyford · 10 games
Axeoften banned
kae · 9 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
518 picks · 337 bans
Dark Willow
449 picks · 241 bans
Mirana
402 picks · 182 bans
Winter Wyvern
354 picks · 325 bans
Ember Spirit
333 picks · 511 bans
Centaur Warrunner
298 picks · 292 bans
Earth Spirit
293 picks · 514 bans
Windranger
293 picks · 134 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)75% vs 47%
Hero pool strength64% Dawn Bulls
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total88% Dawn Bulls
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct33:23
Dawn Bulls 74%Team Spirit Academy 26%
The model gave 74% on Dawn Bulls — the game was taken by Dawn Bulls in 42:26.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
WindrangerShad
Anti-MageKiseki
DawnbreakerXibbe
Snapfire86
Ember SpiritSancity
Doomkae
Tuskyamich
Dark WillowAidar
DazzleSe
Hoodwinksaillyn
Game 2prediction correct25:24
Dawn Bulls 75%Team Spirit Academy 25%
The model gave 75% on Dawn Bulls — the game was taken by Dawn Bulls in 56:23.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Anti-MageShad
Largokae
TinySancity
Earth Spirit86
BrewmasterXibbe
SlarkKiseki
Techiesyamich
Dazzlesaillyn
MiranaSe
RubickAidar
Model check result
Model favoriteDawn Bulls · 88%
Series resultDawn Bulls 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2