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Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 1 — ЮВА 2-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Cignal Ultrawin 2:1
series probability
51%49%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Yangon Galacticosloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Cignal Ultra

Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassinsignature
Abat · 7 games
86%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Jamesy · 5 games
40%
Sand King
Sand Kingoften banned
Jamesy · 3 games
33%
Ursa
Ursaoften banned
Abat · 3 games
33%
Alchemist
Alchemistoften banned
Abat · 2 games
100%
Anti-Mage
Anti-Mageoften banned
Abat · 2 games
50%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Jamesy · 2 games
100%
Kunkka
Kunkkaoften banned
Jamesy · 2 games
50%

Yangon Galacticos

Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
Young PH · 3 games
33%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
Young PH · 3 games
67%
Anti-Mage
Anti-Mageoften banned
Young PH · 2 games
100%
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassinoften banned
Young PH · 2 games
100%
Riki
Rikioften banned
Young PH · 2 games
50%
Spectre
Spectreoften banned
Young PH · 2 games
0%
Medusa
Medusaoften banned
Young PH · 1 game
0%
Phantom Lancer
Phantom Lanceroften banned
Young PH · 1 game
0%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
Puck
219 picks · 463 bans
57%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
192 picks · 255 bans
57%
Mars
Mars
191 picks · 347 bans
48%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
177 picks · 142 bans
50%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Light
149 picks · 245 bans
56%
Phoenix
Phoenix
148 picks · 177 bans
57%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassin
143 picks · 467 bans
58%
Rubick
Rubick
132 picks · 78 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)40% vs 43%
Hero pool strength54% Cignal Ultra
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total51% Cignal Ultra
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed22:39
Cignal Ultra 55%Yangon Galacticos 45%
The model gave 55% on Cignal Ultra — the game was taken by Yangon Galacticos in 34:32.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Riki
RikiAbat
little data18% · 7 games
UrsaYoung PH
Ursa
Void Spirit
Void SpiritJamesy
82% · 7 games
Game 2prediction missed53:25
Cignal Ultra 46%Yangon Galacticos 54%
The model gave 54% on Yangon Galacticos — the game was taken by Cignal Ultra in 45:05.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Riki
RikiAbat
little datalittle data
Anti-MageYoung PH
Anti-Mage
Sand King
Sand KingJamesy
little data
Game 3prediction correct44:25
Cignal Ultra 53%Yangon Galacticos 47%
The model gave 53% on Cignal Ultra — the game was taken by Cignal Ultra in 42:49.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom Assassin
Phantom AssassinAbat
50% · 6 games50% · 6 games
TerrorbladeYoung PH
Terrorblade
Sand King
Sand KingJamesy
little data
Model check result
Model favoriteCignal Ultra · 51%
Series resultCignal Ultra 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 3