Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 1 — ЮВА 2-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Lilgunwin 2:0series probability
24%76%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Omega Esportsloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Lilgun
No games played over 6 months.
Omega Esports
Batrideroften banned
Mac · 6 games
Void Spiritoften banned
Boomy · 5 games
Brewmaster
cml · 4 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Mac · 4 games
Grimstroke
cml · 4 games
Lion
cml · 4 games
Pangolieroften banned
Bok · 4 games
Tiny
Boomy · 4 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
217 picks · 463 bans
Void Spirit
191 picks · 255 bans
Mars
190 picks · 347 bans
Earth Spirit
177 picks · 142 bans
Keeper of the Light
149 picks · 245 bans
Phoenix
148 picks · 175 bans
Nyx Assassin
142 picks · 467 bans
Rubick
131 picks · 77 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)33% vs 68%
Hero pool strength53% Omega Esports
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total76% Omega Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct33:18
Lilgun 24%Omega Esports 76%
The model gave 76% on Omega Esports — the game was taken by Omega Esports in 41:14.
Game 2prediction correct15:26
Lilgun 24%Omega Esports 76%
The model gave 76% on Omega Esports — the game was taken by Omega Esports in 33:30.
Model check result
Model favoriteOmega Esports · 76%
Series resultLilgun 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game2 of 2