Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 1 — Южная Америка 1-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
beastcoastwin 2:0series probability
77%23%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Infamousloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
beastcoast
No games played over 6 months.
Infamous
Marsoften banned
ILICH- · 4 games
Tusk
Pamplona · 4 games
Leshracoften banned
ILICH- · 3 games
Lycanoften banned
ILICH- · 3 games
Bloodseeker
Arms · 2 games
Dark Willow
Yor · 2 games
Elder Titan
Yor · 2 games
Grimstroke
Yor · 2 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
217 picks · 463 bans
Void Spirit
190 picks · 255 bans
Mars
189 picks · 347 bans
Earth Spirit
176 picks · 141 bans
Keeper of the Light
149 picks · 243 bans
Phoenix
148 picks · 175 bans
Nyx Assassin
142 picks · 467 bans
Rubick
131 picks · 77 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)75% vs 43%
Hero pool strength53% Infamous
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total77% beastcoast
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed42:17
beastcoast 77%Infamous 23%
The model gave 77% on beastcoast — the game was taken by Infamous in 36:45.
Game 2prediction missed11:40
beastcoast 77%Infamous 23%
The model gave 77% on beastcoast — the game was taken by Infamous in 27:21.
Model check result
Model favoritebeastcoast · 77%
Series resultbeastcoast 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 2