NoPing VPN vs Thunder Awaken — prediction DPC2S—ЮА1Д 1 · Dota 2

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Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 1 — Южная Америка 1-й дивизион · BO3

result vs prediction

NoPing VPNloss 1:2

series probability

38%62%

probability at match start · final 1:2

Thunder Awakenwin 2:1

The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.

Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months

Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

NoPing VPN

Earth Spirit

Michael · 3 games

Marsoften banned

Mariano · 3 games

33%

Viperoften banned

Oscar · 3 games

100%

Witch Doctor

Accel · 3 games

Gyrocopter

Mingatte · 2 games

50%

Juggernautoften banned

Mingatte · 2 games

50%

Legion Commanderoften banned

Mariano · 2 games

50%

Linaoften banned

Mr.Jeans · 2 games

50%

Thunder Awaken

Keeper of the Lightoften banned

MoOz · 3 games

33%

Phoenixoften banned

Mjz · 3 games

67%

Earthshaker

MoOz · 2 games

100%

Pangolieroften banned

Leostyle · 2 games

50%

Slardaroften banned

Frank · 2 games

50%

Tidehunteroften banned

Frank · 2 games

Timbersawoften banned

Frank · 2 games

50%

Void Spiritoften banned

MoOz · 2 games

Patch meta · 3 months

The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.

Puck

217 picks · 458 bans

57%

Mars

188 picks · 344 bans

48%

Void Spirit

188 picks · 254 bans

57%

Earth Spirit

175 picks · 141 bans

50%

Keeper of the Light

148 picks · 243 bans

56%

Phoenix

148 picks · 172 bans

57%

Nyx Assassin

140 picks · 464 bans

58%

Rubick

130 picks · 77 bans

50%

Prediction components

Form (series winrate)43% vs 50%

Hero pool strength54% Thunder Awaken

Head-to-head0 – 0

Model total62% Thunder Awaken

Prediction by game vs result

Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.

Game 1prediction missed40:22

NoPing VPN 48%Thunder Awaken 52%

The model gave 52% on Thunder Awaken — the game was taken by NoPing VPN in 34:29.

Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo