MEGA vs 2b_team — prediction ЧРСD 2026 2 · Dota 2

Чемпионат России Сбера 2026 по Dota 2 · BO3

result vs prediction

MMEGAwin 2:1

series probability

63%37%

probability at match start · final 2:1

22b_teamloss 1:2

The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.

Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months

Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

MEGA

No games played over 6 months.

2b_team

No games played over 6 months.

Patch meta · 3 months

The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.

Hoodwink

494 picks · 354 bans

53%

Rubick

391 picks · 238 bans

47%

Tiny

339 picks · 349 bans

50%

Clockwerk

335 picks · 633 bans

55%

Windranger

318 picks · 231 bans

50%

Pangolier

298 picks · 401 bans

53%

Bane

291 picks · 277 bans

61%

Storm Spirit

286 picks · 306 bans

46%

Prediction components

Form (series winrate)50% vs 50%

Hero pool strength50% MEGA

Head-to-head0 – 0

Model total63% MEGA

Prediction by game vs result

Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.

Game 1prediction correct55:25

MEGA 55%2b_team 45%

The model gave 55% on MEGA — the game was taken by MEGA in 45:43.

Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo