Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 1 — Европа 2-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Creepwavewin 2:0series probability
86%14%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Bburjuiloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Creepwave
Nyx Assassinsignature
Alexxo · 13 games
Pucksignature
Malr1ne · 12 games
Monkey Kingsignature
Crystallis · 11 games
Void Spiritsignature
Malr1ne · 11 games
Lichsignature
Fishman · 9 games
Marssignature
ATF · 9 games
Miranasignature
Alexxo · 8 games
Wraith Kingsignature
Crystallis · 8 games
burjui
Earth Spirit
KiLLoManceR · 6 games
Oracleoften banned
Atoufix · 4 games
Phoenixoften banned
KiLLoManceR · 4 games
Wraith Kingoften banned
Max · 4 games
Batrideroften banned
canceL^^ · 3 games
Disruptor
Atoufix · 3 games
Invokeroften banned
canceL^^ · 3 games
Juggernautoften banned
Max · 3 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
217 picks · 458 bans
Mars
188 picks · 344 bans
Void Spirit
188 picks · 254 bans
Earth Spirit
175 picks · 141 bans
Keeper of the Light
148 picks · 243 bans
Phoenix
148 picks · 172 bans
Nyx Assassin
140 picks · 464 bans
Rubick
130 picks · 77 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)74% vs 24%
Hero pool strength74% Creepwave
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total86% Creepwave
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct
Creepwave 86%burjui 14%
The model gave 86% on Creepwave — the game was taken by Creepwave.
Model check result
Model favoriteCreepwave · 86%
Series resultCreepwave 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1