DreamLeague Season 30. Открытые отборочные · BO3
result vs predictionNGNew Growthwin 2:1
series probability
50%50%
probability at match start · final 2:1
PHPizza Hookloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
New Growth
Ember Spiritoften banned
Ñengoflow KELOKE · 2 games
Baneoften banned
JimmyCoff666 · 1 game
Bounty Hunteroften banned
Kiri · 1 game
Clockwerk
Kiri · 1 game
Earth Spiritoften banned
Ñengoflow KELOKE · 1 game
Hoodwink
Kiri · 1 game
Largooften banned
JimmyCoff666 · 1 game
Skywrath Mage
Kiri · 1 game
Pizza Hook
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
510 picks · 322 bans
Dark Willow
435 picks · 230 bans
Mirana
396 picks · 176 bans
Winter Wyvern
345 picks · 313 bans
Ember Spirit
324 picks · 497 bans
Centaur Warrunner
297 picks · 285 bans
Windranger
283 picks · 130 bans
Earth Spirit
282 picks · 502 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)40% vs 50%
Hero pool strength56% Pizza Hook
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total50% Pizza Hook
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed24:13
New Growth 50%Pizza Hook 50%
The model gave 50% on Pizza Hook — the game was taken by New Growth in 34:16.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dragon KnightÑengoflow KELOKE
BeastmasterArzenT
PhoenixJimmyCoff666
EnchantressFeelinG
RubickKiri
Game 2prediction correct29:39
New Growth 49%Pizza Hook 51%
The model gave 51% on Pizza Hook — the game was taken by Pizza Hook in 47:50.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Earth SpiritÑengoflow KELOKE
WeaverArzenT
Witch DoctorJimmyCoff666
MiranaFeelinG
RubickKiri
Game 3prediction missed34:15
New Growth 50%Pizza Hook 50%
The model gave 50% on Pizza Hook — the game was taken by New Growth in 31:47.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Earth SpiritÑengoflow KELOKE
BeastmasterArzenT
RubickKiri
Winter WyvernFeelinG
JakiroJimmyCoff666
Model check result
Model favoritePizza Hook · 50%
Series resultNew Growth 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3