EPL Masters III · BO3
result vs prediction
Inner Circleloss 1:2series probability
13%87%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Team Lynxwin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Inner Circle
Hoodwink
Fernans · 26 games
Dark Willow
Fernans · 16 games
Doomsignature
rubikon155 · 16 games
Banesignature
Kidaro · 15 games
Kezoften banned
423 · 13 games
Tusk
Fernans · 13 games
Underlordoften banned
Norma · 11 games
Pangoliersignature
Norma · 10 games
Team Lynx
Hoodwink
QBFY · 39 games
Techiesoften banned
kreker · 29 games
Dark Willow
QBFY · 22 games
Phoenixsignature
kreker · 19 games
Rubick
QBFY · 19 games
Tinysignature
mellojul · 18 games
Windrangersignature
QBFY · 18 games
Slardarsignature
VladikTheHtiviy · 16 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
534 picks · 344 bans
Dark Willow
462 picks · 251 bans
Mirana
409 picks · 184 bans
Winter Wyvern
364 picks · 335 bans
Ember Spirit
339 picks · 522 bans
Windranger
309 picks · 139 bans
Centaur Warrunner
300 picks · 297 bans
Earth Spirit
298 picks · 527 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 57%
Hero pool strength51% Inner Circle
Head-to-head1 – 8
Model total87% Team Lynx
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed53:33
Inner Circle 28%Team Lynx 72%
The model gave 72% on Team Lynx — the game was taken by Inner Circle in 56:15.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's Prophetyowaai
Slarkv1olent-
LinaEthereal
Earth Spiritmellojul
EnigmaNorma
DoomVladikTheHtiviy
DazzleHyugadoto
Witch Doctorkreker
Dark WillowFernans
LionQBFY
Game 2prediction correct16:29
Inner Circle 25%Team Lynx 75%
The model gave 75% on Team Lynx — the game was taken by Team Lynx in 32:56.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Outworld DestroyerEthereal
Nature's Prophetmellojul
DawnbreakerNorma
Anti-Magev1olent-
Ursayowaai
Dragon KnightVladikTheHtiviy
DazzleHyugadoto
Winter Wyvernkreker
Dark WillowFernans
WindrangerQBFY
Game 3prediction correct
Inner Circle 13%Team Lynx 87%
The model gave 87% on Team Lynx — the game was taken by Team Lynx.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Lynx · 87%
Series resultTeam Lynx 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3