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Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 1 — Европа 1-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
ViKin.ggloss 0:2
series probability
74%26%
probability at match start · final 0:2
High Coast Esportswin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

ViKin.gg

Oracle
Oracleoften banned
Seleri · 5 games
60%
Earthshaker
Earthshaker
Aramis · 4 games
75%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Tobi · 3 games
67%
Bounty Hunter
Bounty Hunteroften banned
Aramis · 3 games
67%
Invoker
Invokeroften banned
BOOM · 3 games
67%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
BOOM · 2 games
50%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
Seleri · 2 games
50%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
BOOM · 2 games
50%

High Coast Esports

Mars
Marsoften banned
Chessie · 5 games
60%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
Xibbe · 5 games
80%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
Era · 4 games
25%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Charlie · 4 games
50%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassinoften banned
Era · 4 games
25%
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath Mage
Era · 4 games
75%
Invoker
Invokeroften banned
Supream^ · 3 games
100%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Xibbe · 3 games
67%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
Puck
215 picks · 457 bans
57%
Mars
Mars
188 picks · 344 bans
48%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
187 picks · 252 bans
57%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
174 picks · 141 bans
49%
Phoenix
Phoenix
148 picks · 171 bans
57%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Light
146 picks · 242 bans
56%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassin
139 picks · 462 bans
59%
Rubick
Rubick
130 picks · 77 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)56% vs 25%
Hero pool strength50% ViKin.gg
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total74% ViKin.gg
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed6:30
ViKin.gg 61%High Coast Esports 39%
The model gave 61% on ViKin.gg — the game was taken by High Coast Esports in 30:52.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Naga Siren
Naga SirenShad
little data52% · 36 games
JuggernautCharlie
Juggernaut
Puck
PuckBOOM
45% · 66 games49% · 10 games
Storm SpiritSupream^
Storm Spirit
Timbersaw
TimbersawTobi
51% · 15 games57% · 41 game
BeastmasterChessie
Beastmaster
Nyx Assassin
Nyx AssassinAramis
49% · 47 games51% · 52 games
Shadow ShamanEra
Shadow Shaman
Grimstroke
GrimstrokeSeleri
40% · 31 game59% · 20 games
ChenXibbe
Chen
Game 2prediction missed14:33
ViKin.gg 63%High Coast Esports 37%
The model gave 63% on ViKin.gg — the game was taken by High Coast Esports in 40:59.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Medusa
MedusaShad
47% · 20 games50% · 28 games
JuggernautCharlie
Juggernaut
Puck
PuckBOOM
50% · 101 game58% · 28 games
BeastmasterChessie
Beastmaster
Pangolier
PangolierTobi
47% · 34 games52% · 92 games
Void SpiritSupream^
Void Spirit
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the LightAramis
54% · 68 games59% · 13 games
EnchantressXibbe
Enchantress
Brewmaster
BrewmasterSeleri
44% · 17 games44% · 79 games
Earth SpiritEra
Earth Spirit
Model check result
Model favoriteViKin.gg · 74%
Series resultHigh Coast Esports 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2