Snow Sweet Snow #1 · BO3
result vs prediction
Spider Pigzswin 2:1series probability
50%50%
probability at match start · final 2:1
EXTREMUMloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Spider Pigzs
Linasignature
No!ob · 10 games
Brewmaster
Mitch · 9 games
Rubick
dnz · 9 games
Clockwerk
dnz · 6 games
Death Prophetsignature
Mitch · 6 games
Grimstroke
LeBronDota · 6 games
Dark Seeroften banned
Mitch · 5 games
Puckoften banned
No!ob · 5 games
EXTREMUM
Marssignature
Shachlo · 13 games
Batrideroften banned
mellojul · 10 games
Death Prophetsignature
G · 9 games
Phoenixsignature
Chuvash · 8 games
Void Spiritoften banned
mellojul · 8 games
Alchemistoften banned
Nefrit · 7 games
Witch Doctor
G · 7 games
Wraith Kingoften banned
Nefrit · 6 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
212 picks · 455 bans
Mars
187 picks · 343 bans
Void Spirit
185 picks · 252 bans
Earth Spirit
173 picks · 140 bans
Phoenix
148 picks · 170 bans
Keeper of the Light
145 picks · 238 bans
Nyx Assassin
137 picks · 460 bans
Rubick
128 picks · 77 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)58% vs 60%
Hero pool strength51% EXTREMUM
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total50% Spider Pigzs
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed21:33
Spider Pigzs 52%EXTREMUM 48%
The model gave 52% on Spider Pigzs — the game was taken by EXTREMUM in 40:20.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom Lancerlil pleb
BristlebackNefrit
Bounty HunterMitch
Nature's ProphetShachlo
Void SpiritNo!ob
Batridermellojul
Rubickdnz
Nyx AssassinChuvash
Crystal MaidenLeBronDota
Keeper of the LightG
Game 2prediction correct29:22
Spider Pigzs 51%EXTREMUM 49%
The model gave 51% on Spider Pigzs — the game was taken by Spider Pigzs in 35:40.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Slarklil pleb
BloodseekerNefrit
Void SpiritNo!ob
ViperShachlo
AbaddonMitch
Batridermellojul
Rubickdnz
Nyx AssassinChuvash
GrimstrokeLeBronDota
Crystal MaidenG
Game 3prediction missed23:20
Spider Pigzs 49%EXTREMUM 51%
The model gave 51% on EXTREMUM — the game was taken by Spider Pigzs in 34:09.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
LinaNo!ob
Puckmellojul
Juggernautlil pleb
Monkey KingNefrit
Death ProphetMitch
MarsShachlo
Earthshakerdnz
LionChuvash
Crystal MaidenLeBronDota
Witch DoctorG
Model check result
Model favoriteSpider Pigzs · 50%
Series resultSpider Pigzs 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 3