Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 1 — ЮВА 1-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
TNC Predatorwin 2:0series probability
49%51%
probability at match start · final 2:0
BOOM Esportsloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
TNC Predator
Oracleoften banned
Febby · 4 games
Marsoften banned
kpii · 3 games
Mirana
Tims · 3 games
Batrideroften banned
Armel · 2 games
Beastmasteroften banned
kpii · 2 games
Disruptor
Febby · 2 games
Lycanoften banned
kpii · 2 games
Morphlingoften banned
Gabbi · 2 games
BOOM Esports
Pangolieroften banned
Hyde · 6 games
Crystal Maiden
Khezcute · 3 games
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
Hyde · 3 games
Puckoften banned
Mikoto · 3 games
Storm Spiritoften banned
Mikoto · 3 games
Batrideroften banned
Mikoto · 2 games
Lichoften banned
Khezcute · 2 games
Marsoften banned
Fbz · 2 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
212 picks · 453 bans
Mars
186 picks · 342 bans
Void Spirit
184 picks · 252 bans
Earth Spirit
173 picks · 140 bans
Phoenix
148 picks · 168 bans
Keeper of the Light
145 picks · 238 bans
Nyx Assassin
136 picks · 459 bans
Rubick
128 picks · 77 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 50%
Hero pool strength51% TNC Predator
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total51% BOOM Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct20:29
TNC Predator 53%BOOM Esports 47%
The model gave 53% on TNC Predator — the game was taken by TNC Predator in 53:09.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
MorphlingGabbi
Outworld DestroyerMikoto
Void SpiritArmel
BloodseekerFbz
EarthshakerTims
TinyHyde
Marskpii
Crystal MaidenKhezcute
DisruptorFebby
Game 2prediction missed42:9
TNC Predator 46%BOOM Esports 54%
The model gave 54% on BOOM Esports — the game was taken by TNC Predator in 35:09.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
UrsaGabbi
Storm SpiritMikoto
Outworld DestroyerArmel
TidehunterFbz
Beastmasterkpii
Shadow ShamanHyde
MiranaTims
Nyx AssassinKhezcute
TuskFebby
Model check result
Model favoriteBOOM Esports · 51%
Series resultTNC Predator 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 2