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Snow Sweet Snow #1 · BO3
result vs prediction
Creepwavewin 2:0
series probability
56%44%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Brameloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Creepwave

Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassinsignature
Alexxo · 12 games
67%
Puck
Pucksignature
Malr1ne · 11 games
73%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
Crystallis · 10 games
70%
Lich
Lichsignature
Fishman · 9 games
67%
Void Spirit
Void Spiritsignature
Malr1ne · 9 games
78%
Mars
Marssignature
ATF · 8 games
63%
Wraith King
Wraith Kingsignature
Crystallis · 8 games
75%
Mirana
Miranasignature
Alexxo · 7 games
71%

Brame

Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
CTOMAHEH1 · 10 games
30%
Oracle
Oracleoften banned
SsaSpartan · 8 games
38%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
SkyLark · 7 games
71%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
SsaSpartan · 6 games
50%
Enchantress
Enchantress
SsaSpartan · 5 games
40%
Puck
Puckoften banned
W1sh- · 5 games
40%
Troll Warlord
Troll Warlordoften banned
Focus · 5 games
60%
Ursa
Ursaoften banned
Focus · 5 games
20%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
Puck
211 picks · 452 bans
57%
Mars
Mars
185 picks · 342 bans
48%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
182 picks · 252 bans
56%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
173 picks · 140 bans
50%
Phoenix
Phoenix
148 picks · 168 bans
57%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Light
144 picks · 238 bans
56%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassin
135 picks · 458 bans
59%
Rubick
Rubick
128 picks · 76 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)72% vs 53%
Hero pool strength62% Creepwave
Head-to-head2 – 0
Model total56% Creepwave
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct32:23
Creepwave 53%Brame 47%
The model gave 53% on Creepwave — the game was taken by Creepwave in 41:39.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Monkey King
Monkey KingCrystallis
44% · 24 games51% · 13 games
MedusaFocus
Medusa
Mars
MarsATF
54% · 58 games48% · 43 games
BatriderW1sh-
Batrider
Void Spirit
Void SpiritMalr1ne
49% · 54 games56% · 82 games
Keeper of the LightCTOMAHEH1
Keeper of the Light
Earthshaker
EarthshakerMiLAN
39% · 19 games46% · 9 games
Sand KingSkyLark
Sand King
Crystal Maiden
Crystal MaidenFishman
43% · 28 games53% · 36 games
Shadow ShamanSsaSpartan
Shadow Shaman
Game 2prediction correct31:19
Creepwave 51%Brame 49%
The model gave 51% on Creepwave — the game was taken by Creepwave in 34:01.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Troll Warlord
Troll WarlordCrystallis
32% · 10 games55% · 20 games
Templar AssassinW1sh-
Templar Assassin
Puck
PuckMalr1ne
48% · 29 games43% · 43 games
JuggernautFocus
Juggernaut
Void Spirit
Void SpiritATF
46% · 36 games59% · 20 games
Dark SeerSkyLark
Dark Seer
Mirana
MiranaMiLAN
63% · 11 games62% · 36 games
ClockwerkCTOMAHEH1
Clockwerk
Nyx Assassin
Nyx AssassinFishman
44% · 33 gameslittle data
BaneSsaSpartan
Bane
Model check result
Model favoriteCreepwave · 56%
Series resultCreepwave 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2