Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 1 — Северная Америка 1-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
4 Zoomerswin 2:0series probability
62%38%
probability at match start · final 2:0
5ManMidasloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
4 Zoomers
No games played over 6 months.
5ManMidas
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
210 picks · 451 bans
Mars
185 picks · 339 bans
Void Spirit
182 picks · 252 bans
Earth Spirit
173 picks · 140 bans
Phoenix
147 picks · 167 bans
Keeper of the Light
144 picks · 238 bans
Nyx Assassin
135 picks · 454 bans
Rubick
128 picks · 76 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 36%
Hero pool strength50% 4 Zoomers
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total62% 4 Zoomers
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct31:17
4 Zoomers 62%5ManMidas 38%
The model gave 62% on 4 Zoomers — the game was taken by 4 Zoomers in 31:08.
Game 2prediction correct30:11
4 Zoomers 62%5ManMidas 38%
The model gave 62% on 4 Zoomers — the game was taken by 4 Zoomers in 25:14.
Model check result
Model favorite4 Zoomers · 62%
Series result4 Zoomers 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2