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Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 1 — Европа 1-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Nigma Galaxyloss 1:2
series probability
50%50%
probability at match start · final 1:2
OGwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Nigma Galaxy

Bloodseeker
Bloodseekersignature
MinD_ContRoL · 6 games
67%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
GH · 5 games
60%
Puck
Puckoften banned
w33 · 5 games
40%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
KuroKy · 3 games
67%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
w33 · 2 games
0%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
w33 · 2 games
100%
Enigma
Enigmaoften banned
MinD_ContRoL · 2 games
50%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
KuroKy · 2 games
50%

OG

Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassinoften banned
Saksa · 3 games
67%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
Saksa · 2 games
100%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Topson · 2 games
50%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
Ceb · 2 games
50%
Riki
Rikioften banned
MidOne · 2 games
50%
Undying
Undyingoften banned
n0tail · 2 games
100%
Brewmaster
Brewmaster
Ceb · 1 game
0%
Clinkz
Clinkz
Topson · 1 game
100%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
Puck
207 picks · 449 bans
57%
Mars
Mars
184 picks · 339 bans
48%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
180 picks · 250 bans
56%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
172 picks · 139 bans
49%
Phoenix
Phoenix
146 picks · 167 bans
57%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Light
142 picks · 235 bans
56%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassin
134 picks · 449 bans
59%
Rubick
Rubick
126 picks · 76 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 57%
Hero pool strength51% OG
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total50% Nigma Galaxy
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct36:13
Nigma Galaxy 52%OG 48%
The model gave 52% on Nigma Galaxy — the game was taken by Nigma Galaxy in 33:16.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightMiracle-
62% · 25 games29% · 13 games
UrsaMidOne
Ursa
Razor
Razorw33
little data42% · 22 games
Monkey KingTopson
Monkey King
Venomancer
VenomancerMinD_ContRoL
58% · 15 gameslittle data
MagnusCeb
Magnus
Earthshaker
EarthshakerGH
57% · 41 game56% · 14 games
Keeper of the LightSaksa
Keeper of the Light
Lion
LionKuroKy
56% · 15 games41% · 47 games
Puckn0tail
Puck
Game 2prediction missed7:40
Nigma Galaxy 50%OG 50%
The model gave 50% on Nigma Galaxy — the game was taken by OG in 28:40.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Anti-Mage
Anti-MageMiracle-
29% · 3 games51% · 23 games
JuggernautMidOne
Juggernaut
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightw33
59% · 24 games51% · 12 games
Dark SeerCeb
Dark Seer
Phoenix
PhoenixGH
60% · 41 game47% · 70 games
PuckTopson
Puck
Death Prophet
Death ProphetKuroKy
38% · 40 games41% · 15 games
Enigman0tail
Enigma
Earthshaker
EarthshakerMinD_ContRoL
56% · 36 games50% · 24 games
ClockwerkSaksa
Clockwerk
Game 3prediction missed19:52
Nigma Galaxy 51%OG 49%
The model gave 51% on Nigma Galaxy — the game was taken by OG in 28:33.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Medusa
MedusaMiracle-
53% · 26 games50% · 25 games
Nature's ProphetCeb
Nature's Prophet
Viper
Viperw33
60% · 18 games42% · 30 games
RikiMidOne
Riki
Shadow Shaman
Shadow ShamanGH
49% · 50 games50% · 66 games
PuckTopson
Puck
Mars
MarsMinD_ContRoL
51% · 92 games53% · 63 games
Earth SpiritSaksa
Earth Spirit
Clockwerk
ClockwerkKuroKy
49% · 16 games39% · 18 games
Enigman0tail
Enigma
Model check result
Model favoriteNigma Galaxy · 50%
Series resultOG 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3