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Snow Sweet Snow #1 · BO3
result vs prediction
Bramewin 2:0
series probability
47%53%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Imperial Pro Gamingloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Brame

Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
CTOMAHEH1 · 10 games
30%
Oracle
Oracleoften banned
SsaSpartan · 8 games
38%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
SkyLark · 7 games
71%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
SsaSpartan · 6 games
50%
Enchantress
Enchantress
SsaSpartan · 5 games
40%
Puck
Puckoften banned
W1sh- · 5 games
40%
Troll Warlord
Troll Warlordoften banned
Focus · 5 games
60%
Ursa
Ursaoften banned
Focus · 5 games
20%

Imperial Pro Gaming

Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
Muka · 12 games
50%
Puck
Pucksignature
Askold · 10 games
70%
Chen
Chensignature
antoha · 8 games
63%
Elder Titan
Elder Titansignature
antoha · 8 games
75%
Leshrac
Leshracsignature
Askold · 8 games
75%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Muka · 7 games
71%
Tidehunter
Tidehuntersignature
SuperNova · 6 games
67%
Io
Iooften banned
antoha · 5 games
40%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
Puck
204 picks · 444 bans
57%
Mars
Mars
181 picks · 337 bans
48%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
174 picks · 248 bans
57%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
172 picks · 139 bans
49%
Phoenix
Phoenix
146 picks · 167 bans
57%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Light
139 picks · 233 bans
55%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassin
130 picks · 445 bans
60%
Rubick
Rubick
125 picks · 75 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 63%
Hero pool strength60% Imperial Pro Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total53% Imperial Pro Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed39:13
Brame 49%Imperial Pro Gaming 51%
The model gave 51% on Imperial Pro Gaming — the game was taken by Brame in 34:22.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Juggernaut
JuggernautFocus
42% · 36 games53% · 16 games
Nature's ProphetSuperNova
Nature's Prophet
Windranger
WindrangerW1sh-
little data51% · 31 game
Void SpiritAskold
Void Spirit
Dark Seer
Dark SeerSkyLark
51% · 13 games47% · 13 games
Monkey KingMuka
Monkey King
Clockwerk
ClockwerkCTOMAHEH1
53% · 28 games53% · 29 games
Nyx AssassinjAMES
Nyx Assassin
Disruptor
DisruptorSsaSpartan
54% · 12 gameslittle data
Ioantoha
Io
Game 2prediction missed32:9
Brame 49%Imperial Pro Gaming 51%
The model gave 51% on Imperial Pro Gaming — the game was taken by Brame in 31:51.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar AssassinW1sh-
59% · 10 games42% · 25 games
Death ProphetAskold
Death Prophet
Riki
RikiFocus
33% · 23 games50% · 48 games
Void SpiritSuperNova
Void Spirit
Dark Seer
Dark SeerSkyLark
55% · 15 games45% · 34 games
Nyx AssassinMuka
Nyx Assassin
Clockwerk
ClockwerkCTOMAHEH1
60% · 32 games41% · 25 games
Undyingantoha
Undying
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the LightSsaSpartan
61% · 52 games
Model check result
Model favoriteImperial Pro Gaming · 53%
Series resultBrame 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2