Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 1 — Южная Америка 2-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
0-900loss 0:1series probability
29%71%
probability at match start · final 0:1
Infinity Esportswin 1:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
0-900
Witch Doctorsignature
Jericho · 7 games
Beastmasteroften banned
Greedy · 3 games
Dark Seeroften banned
Greedy · 2 games
Earth Spirit
sl4d1n- · 2 games
Earthshaker
sl4d1n- · 2 games
Marsoften banned
sl4d1n- · 2 games
Undyingoften banned
Jericho · 2 games
Windrangeroften banned
sl4d1n- · 2 games
Infinity Esports
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
204 picks · 444 bans
Mars
181 picks · 336 bans
Void Spirit
174 picks · 248 bans
Earth Spirit
171 picks · 138 bans
Phoenix
146 picks · 167 bans
Keeper of the Light
139 picks · 233 bans
Nyx Assassin
130 picks · 445 bans
Rubick
125 picks · 75 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)25% vs 44%
Hero pool strength57% 0-900
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total71% Infinity Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct23:50
0-900 29%Infinity Esports 71%
The model gave 71% on Infinity Esports — the game was taken by Infinity Esports in 44:25.
Game 2prediction correct33:34
0-900 29%Infinity Esports 71%
The model gave 71% on Infinity Esports — the game was taken by Infinity Esports in 48:57.
Model check result
Model favoriteInfinity Esports · 71%
Series resultInfinity Esports 0:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2