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Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 1 — СНГ 2-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
HellRaisersloss 0:2
series probability
68%32%
probability at match start · final 0:2
AS Monaco Gambitwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

HellRaisers

No games played over 6 months.

AS Monaco Gambit

Mars
Marsoften banned
Blizzy · 5 games
40%
Phantom Lancer
Phantom Lanceroften banned
xannii · 4 games
50%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
PuberrrR · 3 games
0%
Mirana
Mirana
xsvampire · 3 games
0%
Rubick
Rubick
xsvampire · 3 games
0%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Blizzy · 2 games
0%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
xsvampire · 2 games
50%
Earthshaker
Earthshaker
xsvampire · 2 games
100%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
Puck
201 picks · 438 bans
57%
Mars
Mars
179 picks · 335 bans
48%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
171 picks · 245 bans
56%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
168 picks · 138 bans
48%
Phoenix
Phoenix
145 picks · 165 bans
58%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Light
136 picks · 229 bans
54%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassin
127 picks · 440 bans
61%
Rubick
Rubick
123 picks · 74 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)56% vs 33%
Hero pool strength55% HellRaisers
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total68% HellRaisers
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed32:38
HellRaisers 68%AS Monaco Gambit 32%
The model gave 68% on HellRaisers — the game was taken by AS Monaco Gambit in 1:17:47.
Game 2prediction missed46:15
HellRaisers 68%AS Monaco Gambit 32%
The model gave 68% on HellRaisers — the game was taken by AS Monaco Gambit in 51:39.
Model check result
Model favoriteHellRaisers · 68%
Series resultAS Monaco Gambit 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2