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Snow Sweet Snow #1 · BO3
result vs prediction
Bramewin 2:0
series probability
33%67%
probability at match start · final 2:0
No Bounty Hunterloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Brame

Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
CTOMAHEH1 · 9 games
22%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
SkyLark · 7 games
71%
Oracle
Oracleoften banned
SsaSpartan · 7 games
43%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
SsaSpartan · 6 games
50%
Enchantress
Enchantress
SsaSpartan · 5 games
40%
Troll Warlord
Troll Warlordoften banned
Focus · 5 games
60%
Enigma
Enigmaoften banned
SkyLark · 4 games
0%
Puck
Puckoften banned
W1sh- · 4 games
25%

No Bounty Hunter

Rubick
Rubicksignature
ntakii · 8 games
63%
Puck
Pucksignature
ntakii · 6 games
67%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
ntakii · 5 games
60%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
dEsire · 5 games
100%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
Flash · 5 games
40%
Bloodseeker
Bloodseeker
BliNcc · 4 games
100%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
Flash · 4 games
100%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
BliNcc · 3 games
100%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
Puck
200 picks · 437 bans
57%
Mars
Mars
179 picks · 335 bans
48%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
171 picks · 245 bans
56%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
167 picks · 138 bans
49%
Phoenix
Phoenix
144 picks · 165 bans
57%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Light
136 picks · 229 bans
54%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassin
127 picks · 439 bans
61%
Rubick
Rubick
123 picks · 72 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)44% vs 65%
Hero pool strength63% No Bounty Hunter
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total67% No Bounty Hunter
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed31:16
Brame 43%No Bounty Hunter 57%
The model gave 57% on No Bounty Hunter — the game was taken by Brame in 35:55.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Juggernaut
JuggernautFocus
39% · 7 games55% · 7 games
Outworld Destroyerntakii
Outworld Destroyer
Leshrac
LeshracW1sh-
44% · 8 gameslittle data
Chaos KnightkAAN
Chaos Knight
Lycan
LycanSkyLark
51% · 8 games51% · 15 games
TimbersawBliNcc
Timbersaw
Earthshaker
EarthshakerCTOMAHEH1
62% · 15 games43% · 16 games
Crystal MaidenFlash
Crystal Maiden
Chen
ChenSsaSpartan
little data
Game 2prediction missed36:27
Brame 40%No Bounty Hunter 60%
The model gave 60% on No Bounty Hunter — the game was taken by Brame in 47:14.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Bloodseeker
BloodseekerFocus
55% · 26 games54% · 36 games
Wraith KingkAAN
Wraith King
Puck
PuckW1sh-
54% · 87 games52% · 23 games
LycanBliNcc
Lycan
Underlord
UnderlordSkyLark
36% · 11 games43% · 30 games
Ember Spiritntakii
Ember Spirit
Phoenix
PhoenixSsaSpartan
61% · 55 games35% · 79 games
Earth SpiritdEsire
Earth Spirit
Earthshaker
EarthshakerCTOMAHEH1
75% · 16 games40% · 27 games
Death ProphetFlash
Death Prophet
Model check result
Model favoriteNo Bounty Hunter · 67%
Series resultBrame 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2