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Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 1 — ЮВА 2-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Nigma Galaxy SEAwin 2:1
series probability
44%56%
probability at match start · final 2:1
HOYOloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Nigma Galaxy SEA

Ogre Magi
Ogre Magi
343 · 8 games
38%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
AlaCrity · 6 games
67%
Troll Warlord
Troll Warlordsignature
Ghost · 6 games
67%
Riki
Rikioften banned
Ghost · 5 games
60%
Enchantress
Enchantress
343 · 3 games
33%
Rubick
Rubick
343 · 3 games
67%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
AlaCrity · 3 games
33%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinoften banned
AlaCrity · 3 games
33%

HOYO

Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Forev · 5 games
40%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Fearless · 4 games
75%
Ogre Magi
Ogre Magi
boombell · 3 games
67%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painoften banned
Fearless · 3 games
67%
Undying
Undyingoften banned
boombell · 3 games
67%
Axe
Axe
Forev · 2 games
50%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Fearless · 2 games
100%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
Jhocam · 2 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
Puck
198 picks · 436 bans
57%
Mars
Mars
179 picks · 333 bans
48%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
171 picks · 244 bans
56%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
167 picks · 138 bans
49%
Phoenix
Phoenix
144 picks · 164 bans
57%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Light
136 picks · 229 bans
54%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassin
127 picks · 438 bans
61%
Rubick
Rubick
123 picks · 72 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)44% vs 54%
Hero pool strength53% HOYO
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total56% HOYO
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct19:26
Nigma Galaxy SEA 48%HOYO 52%
The model gave 52% on HOYO — the game was taken by HOYO in 38:37.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Monkey King
Monkey KingAlaCrity
49% · 29 games54% · 21 game
Juggernaut23savage
Juggernaut
Puck
PuckForce
48% · 48 games57% · 26 games
Dragon KnightFearless
Dragon Knight
Clockwerk
Clockwerk343
49% · 25 games43% · 6 games
VenomancerMeracle
Venomancer
53% · 26 games
EarthshakerJhocam
Earthshaker
42% · 23 games
Crystal Maidenboombell
Crystal Maiden
Game 2prediction missed32:20
Nigma Galaxy SEA 47%HOYO 53%
The model gave 53% on HOYO — the game was taken by Nigma Galaxy SEA in 46:34.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
MorphlingAlaCrity
55% · 21 game57% · 3 games
Anti-Mage23savage
Anti-Mage
Queen of Pain
Queen of PainForce
52% · 13 games47% · 7 games
Storm SpiritFearless
Storm Spirit
Abaddon
Abaddon343
43% · 3 games49% · 18 games
Monkey KingMeracle
Monkey King
little data
Skywrath MageJhocam
Skywrath Mage
41% · 9 games
Clockwerkboombell
Clockwerk
Game 3prediction missed31:22
Nigma Galaxy SEA 48%HOYO 52%
The model gave 52% on HOYO — the game was taken by Nigma Galaxy SEA in 45:02.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Medusa
MedusaForce
55% · 7 games52% · 32 games
PuckFearless
Puck
Troll Warlord
Troll WarlordAlaCrity
48% · 25 gameslittle data
Drow Ranger23savage
Drow Ranger
Disruptor
Disruptor343
59% · 9 games35% · 9 games
PangolierMeracle
Pangolier
little data
Dark WillowJhocam
Dark Willow
little data
Abaddonboombell
Abaddon
Model check result
Model favoriteHOYO · 56%
Series resultNigma Galaxy SEA 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3