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Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 1 — Северная Америка 2-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Feltwin 2:1
series probability
79%21%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Electronic Boysloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Felt

Anti-Mage
Anti-Mageoften banned
Kom4rt · 1 game
100%
Axe
Axeoften banned
Zore · 1 game
0%
Outworld Destroyer
Outworld Destroyeroften banned
solji · 1 game
100%
Razor
Razoroften banned
solji · 1 game
0%
Riki
Rikioften banned
Kom4rt · 1 game
0%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinoften banned
solji · 1 game
100%
Timbersaw
Timbersawoften banned
Zore · 1 game
100%
Void Spirit
Void Spiritoften banned
Zore · 1 game
100%

Electronic Boys

Jakiro
Jakiro
albinozebra · 3 games
33%
Witch Doctor
Witch Doctor
albinozebra · 3 games
33%
Juggernaut
Juggernautoften banned
Speeed · 2 games
0%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Giant · 2 games
0%
Outworld Destroyer
Outworld Destroyeroften banned
Giant · 2 games
0%
Riki
Rikioften banned
Speeed · 2 games
0%
Bristleback
Bristlebackoften banned
Giant · 1 game
0%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
albinozebra · 1 game
0%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
Puck
198 picks · 434 bans
57%
Mars
Mars
179 picks · 331 bans
48%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
171 picks · 242 bans
56%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
167 picks · 138 bans
49%
Phoenix
Phoenix
144 picks · 164 bans
57%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Light
135 picks · 228 bans
55%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassin
127 picks · 436 bans
61%
Rubick
Rubick
123 picks · 72 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)67% vs 22%
Hero pool strength60% Felt
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total79% Felt
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct31:29
Felt 64%Electronic Boys 36%
The model gave 64% on Felt — the game was taken by Felt in 39:24.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Drow Ranger
Drow RangerKom4rt
53% · 7 games44% · 5 games
Ember SpiritSpeeed
Ember Spirit
Timbersaw
TimbersawZore
50% · 24 games48% · 9 games
Death ProphetGiant
Death Prophet
Tiny
Tinysolji
little data52% · 17 games
Keeper of the Lightalbinozebra
Keeper of the Light
Game 2prediction missed12:30
Felt 67%Electronic Boys 33%
The model gave 67% on Felt — the game was taken by Electronic Boys in 41:19.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Slark
SlarkKom4rt
little datalittle data
AlchemistSpeeed
Alchemist
Weaver
WeaverZore
52% · 9 games44% · 8 games
TimbersawGiant
Timbersaw
Batrider
Batridersolji
54% · 29 games47% · 30 games
Oraclealbinozebra
Oracle
Game 3prediction correct44:18
Felt 65%Electronic Boys 35%
The model gave 65% on Felt — the game was taken by Felt in 32:59.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ursa
UrsaKom4rt
50% · 4 gameslittle data
AlchemistSpeeed
Alchemist
Axe
AxeZore
little datalittle data
ViperGiant
Viper
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsolji
44% · 5 games53% · 9 games
Witch Doctoralbinozebra
Witch Doctor
Model check result
Model favoriteFelt · 79%
Series resultFelt 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3