Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 1 — Северная Америка 1-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Evil Geniuseswin 2:0series probability
43%57%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Team Undyingloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Evil Geniuses
Beastmasteroften banned
Kingrd · 4 games
Witch Doctor
KJ · 4 games
Wraith Kingoften banned
Costabile · 3 games
Dark Willow
Thiolicor · 2 games
Invokeroften banned
4dr · 2 games
Marsoften banned
4dr · 2 games
Oracleoften banned
KJ · 2 games
Outworld Destroyeroften banned
4dr · 2 games
Team Undying
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
198 picks · 432 bans
Mars
179 picks · 331 bans
Void Spirit
171 picks · 240 bans
Earth Spirit
165 picks · 138 bans
Phoenix
144 picks · 164 bans
Keeper of the Light
135 picks · 226 bans
Nyx Assassin
127 picks · 434 bans
Rubick
123 picks · 72 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)71% vs 78%
Hero pool strength62% Evil Geniuses
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total57% Team Undying
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct21:23
Evil Geniuses 43%Team Undying 57%
The model gave 57% on Team Undying — the game was taken by Team Undying in 35:15.
Game 2prediction correct31:19
Evil Geniuses 43%Team Undying 57%
The model gave 57% on Team Undying — the game was taken by Team Undying in 35:47.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Undying · 57%
Series resultEvil Geniuses 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game2 of 2