Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 1 — Северная Америка 1-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
4 Zoomerswin 2:0series probability
38%62%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Eternityloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
4 Zoomers
No games played over 6 months.
Eternity
Witch Doctor
Jubei · 3 games
Earthshaker
FrancisLee · 2 games
Outworld Destroyeroften banned
Ryoya · 2 games
Puckoften banned
Ryoya · 2 games
Storm Spiritoften banned
Ryoya · 2 games
Ancient Apparitionoften banned
Jubei · 1 game
Earth Spirit
FrancisLee · 1 game
Ember Spiritoften banned
YamSun · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
197 picks · 431 bans
Mars
179 picks · 330 bans
Void Spirit
171 picks · 240 bans
Earth Spirit
165 picks · 138 bans
Phoenix
143 picks · 164 bans
Keeper of the Light
135 picks · 224 bans
Nyx Assassin
127 picks · 433 bans
Rubick
123 picks · 71 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)43% vs 56%
Hero pool strength52% 4 Zoomers
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total62% Eternity
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed33:15
4 Zoomers 38%Eternity 62%
The model gave 62% on Eternity — the game was taken by 4 Zoomers in 39:08.
Game 2prediction missed37:30
4 Zoomers 38%Eternity 62%
The model gave 62% on Eternity — the game was taken by 4 Zoomers in 41:14.
Model check result
Model favoriteEternity · 62%
Series result4 Zoomers 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2