Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 1 — СНГ 1-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Natus Vincerewin 2:0series probability
64%36%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Team Empireloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Natus Vincere
Chenoften banned
RodjER · 3 games
Enigmaoften banned
GeneRaL · 3 games
Beastmasteroften banned
GeneRaL · 2 games
Disruptor
ALWAYSWANNAFLY · 2 games
Doomoften banned
Iceberg · 2 games
Earth Spirit
RodjER · 2 games
Morphlingoften banned
V-Tune · 2 games
Phantom Lanceroften banned
V-Tune · 2 games
Team Empire
Phoenixoften banned
sayuw · 9 games
Earth Spiritsignature
sayuw · 6 games
Medusaoften banned
Smiling Knight · 5 games
Clockwerk
sayuw · 4 games
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
EcNart · 4 games
Wraith Kingoften banned
Smiling Knight · 4 games
Chenoften banned
EcNart · 3 games
Juggernautoften banned
Smiling Knight · 3 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
197 picks · 428 bans
Mars
178 picks · 327 bans
Void Spirit
170 picks · 236 bans
Earth Spirit
165 picks · 137 bans
Phoenix
142 picks · 163 bans
Keeper of the Light
134 picks · 220 bans
Nyx Assassin
123 picks · 432 bans
Rubick
122 picks · 71 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)71% vs 50%
Hero pool strength58% Natus Vincere
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total64% Natus Vincere
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct35:32
Natus Vincere 55%Team Empire 45%
The model gave 55% on Natus Vincere — the game was taken by Natus Vincere in 1:05:50.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
LifestealerV-Tune
Wraith KingSmiling Knight
EnigmaGeneRaL
Death ProphetPetushara
AbaddonIceberg
Shadow Shamansayuw
Naga SirenALWAYSWANNAFLY
BatriderEcNart
Nyx AssassinRodjER
Game 2prediction correct20:7
Natus Vincere 59%Team Empire 41%
The model gave 59% on Natus Vincere — the game was taken by Natus Vincere in 18:35.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
LifestealerV-Tune
Troll WarlordSmiling Knight
KunkkaIceberg
TidehunterPetushara
BeastmasterGeneRaL
Nyx Assassinsayuw
Dark WillowRodjER
PhoenixEcNart
DisruptorALWAYSWANNAFLY
Model check result
Model favoriteNatus Vincere · 64%
Series resultNatus Vincere 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2