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Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 1 — СНГ 2-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
B8 Esportsloss 0:2
series probability
36%64%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Imperial Pro Gamingwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

B8 Esports

Puck
Puckoften banned
Dendi · 5 games
40%
Rubick
Rubick
illusion · 5 games
60%
Arc Warden
Arc Wardenoften banned
RdO · 4 games
50%
Enchantress
Enchantress
Duster · 4 games
50%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
RdO · 4 games
50%
Wraith King
Wraith Kingoften banned
RdO · 4 games
25%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
Duster · 3 games
0%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
illusion · 2 games
0%

Imperial Pro Gaming

Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
Muka · 11 games
45%
Chen
Chensignature
antoha · 8 games
63%
Elder Titan
Elder Titansignature
antoha · 8 games
75%
Leshrac
Leshracsignature
Askold · 8 games
75%
Puck
Pucksignature
Askold · 8 games
63%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Muka · 7 games
71%
Tidehunter
Tidehuntersignature
SuperNova · 6 games
67%
Io
Iooften banned
antoha · 5 games
40%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
Puck
194 picks · 426 bans
57%
Mars
Mars
178 picks · 325 bans
47%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
166 picks · 235 bans
56%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
164 picks · 137 bans
49%
Phoenix
Phoenix
141 picks · 162 bans
59%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Light
133 picks · 220 bans
55%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassin
123 picks · 429 bans
61%
Rubick
Rubick
122 picks · 68 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)40% vs 59%
Hero pool strength59% Imperial Pro Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total64% Imperial Pro Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct14:33
B8 Esports 42%Imperial Pro Gaming 58%
The model gave 58% on Imperial Pro Gaming — the game was taken by Imperial Pro Gaming in 29:08.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ursa
UrsaRdO
37% · 22 games50% · 71 game
PuckAskold
Puck
Void Spirit
Void SpiritDendi
46% · 56 games60% · 6 games
UnderlordSuperNova
Underlord
Phoenix
Phoenix[T]SA
59% · 37 games54% · 27 games
EarthshakerMuka
Earthshaker
Clockwerk
ClockwerkDuster
65% · 16 games39% · 27 games
Undyingantoha
Undying
Game 2prediction correct39:39
B8 Esports 40%Imperial Pro Gaming 60%
The model gave 60% on Imperial Pro Gaming — the game was taken by Imperial Pro Gaming in 54:00.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Alchemist
AlchemistRdO
43% · 14 games50% · 85 games
PuckAskold
Puck
Void Spirit
Void SpiritDendi
51% · 66 games44% · 8 games
Dark SeerSuperNova
Dark Seer
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman[T]SA
48% · 35 games52% · 47 games
Earth SpiritMuka
Earth Spirit
Death Prophet
Death ProphetDuster
49% · 28 games71% · 3 games
Enchantressantoha
Enchantress
Model check result
Model favoriteImperial Pro Gaming · 64%
Series resultImperial Pro Gaming 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2