Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 1 — Китай 1-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Elephantwin 2:1series probability
40%60%
probability at match start · final 2:1
LGD Gamingloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Elephant
No games played over 6 months.
LGD Gaming
Ancient Apparitionoften banned
y` · 4 games
Beastmasteroften banned
Faith_bian · 3 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
NothingToSay · 3 games
Monkey Kingoften banned
Ame · 3 games
Earthshaker
XinQ · 2 games
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
y` · 2 games
Marsoften banned
Faith_bian · 2 games
Morphlingoften banned
Ame · 2 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
194 picks · 426 bans
Mars
178 picks · 325 bans
Void Spirit
166 picks · 235 bans
Earth Spirit
164 picks · 137 bans
Phoenix
141 picks · 162 bans
Keeper of the Light
133 picks · 220 bans
Nyx Assassin
123 picks · 429 bans
Rubick
122 picks · 68 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)43% vs 57%
Hero pool strength57% LGD Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total60% LGD Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct24:45
Elephant 40%LGD Gaming 60%
The model gave 60% on LGD Gaming — the game was taken by LGD Gaming in 49:48.
Game 2prediction correct12:25
Elephant 40%LGD Gaming 60%
The model gave 60% on LGD Gaming — the game was taken by LGD Gaming in 33:54.
Game 3prediction correct28:48
Elephant 40%LGD Gaming 60%
The model gave 60% on LGD Gaming — the game was taken by LGD Gaming in 58:16.
Model check result
Model favoriteLGD Gaming · 60%
Series resultElephant 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game3 of 3