Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 1 — Китай 1-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Team MagMawin 2:0series probability
56%44%
probability at match start · final 2:0
LBZSloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team MagMa
No games played over 6 months.
LBZS
Earth Spiritsignature
CatYou · 6 games
Undyingoften banned
xiaofu · 5 games
Elder Titan
xiaofu · 4 games
Troll Warlordoften banned
MS · 4 games
Medusaoften banned
MS · 3 games
Tusk
CatYou · 3 games
Centaur Warrunner
Irving · 2 games
Juggernautoften banned
MS · 2 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
194 picks · 424 bans
Mars
178 picks · 323 bans
Void Spirit
166 picks · 234 bans
Earth Spirit
164 picks · 136 bans
Phoenix
141 picks · 161 bans
Keeper of the Light
133 picks · 220 bans
Nyx Assassin
123 picks · 427 bans
Rubick
121 picks · 67 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)44% vs 40%
Hero pool strength51% LBZS
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total56% Team MagMa
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed11:29
Team MagMa 56%LBZS 44%
The model gave 56% on Team MagMa — the game was taken by LBZS in 35:57.
Game 2prediction missed31:17
Team MagMa 56%LBZS 44%
The model gave 56% on Team MagMa — the game was taken by LBZS in 32:11.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam MagMa · 56%
Series resultTeam MagMa 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 2